Amazon is Awesome

Sunday, October 21, 2018

Separation of FANG

Netflix had a great earnings report Tuesday afternoon and it shot up after the Bell on Tuesday and went straight down after that. It opened Wednesday morning at $380, dipped down to 356 before finishing around 365. It went further down on Thursday and even further on Friday as Disney hit a new 52 week high that is near it's all time high based on belief that Disney will take market share from Netflix moving forward. Alphabet and Amazon traded down but for the most part Alphabet and Facebook finished the week flat while Netflix and Amazon experienced more negative effects due to their high valuation.

Trading Alphabet (GOOGL) options were interesting on Friday as it looked very similar to the prior Friday. Alphabet opened up and went up to 1121 by 10:05am before going down to 1098. It went back up to 1110 and back down to 1097 before finishing the day at 1105. It didn't have the big late day run like last Friday and is why I say that you can't trade expecting a huge Friday afternoon movement or you will get burned more times than not.

Options will be very expensive for Amazon and Alphabet because they report earnings after the bell on Thursday. Like Netflix  their earnings should be great and they will go up huge and sell off the whole day on Friday.

I did take advantage of the sold off Friday position of Tesla to buy a 360 Call for next week when it was at 354. I hope to get a nice move up on Monday or I will be selling quickly.

On Tuesday Verizon will report third quarter earnings before the market opens and as usual it will be great and benefit from not having any tariff exposure or declining media business because they are not trying to be in a low profit market like AT&T which reports Wednesday. It would be nice if AT&T has something good to report. Either way Verizon should be up more which is never the case as AT&T drags Verizon down with it. I would like to see Verizon and AT&T to act like PayPal and Ebay as PayPal had great earnings report and Ebay went in the opposite direction on PayPal highs.

Boeing reports earnings Wednesday morning and they should be excellent as long as they don't have anything to say about tariffs. As with almost every company that has reported earnings, I find that if they have great earnings and go up big, they will sell off that next trading session. If the market does not like the earnings, the shares will go further down in the next couple of market sessions. Either way it appears best to buy Put options in the first couple of minutes after the market opens after earnings are reported. Based on that stance it sounds like we are in a bear market. I don't believe that is the case as positive market movement is based on less than 30 days in a year. That is what history says  but the down days extend into multiple sessions while positive movement occurs in a day and doesn't appear to move as much as the sum of the down days. 

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