Amazon is Awesome

Thursday, October 18, 2018

Netflix and Chilled, Interest Rates and Market Correction

Netflix reported a blow out 3rd quarter Tuesday afternoon. The stock rose as high as $400 before
settling around $385 and then opened Wednesday morning at $380. From there it went down along with FANG. Facebook, Amazon, and Alphabet found a bottom earlier than Netflix. Netflix found it's bottom around 355 before moving up for the afternoon. I like to see if that number will hold, but so far on Thursday is barely hanging on. Alphabet bottomed at 1115 which should be a key point to pay attention to on Thursday.

Today Alphabet opened higher at 1130 and went straight down to 1114 before bouncing up and then retesting that level at which I bought Call Options and it didn't hold as it went down to 1110. Much of the downward movement in stocks is due to the Federal Reserve minutes noting they still expect to raise interest rates 3 more times next year in addition to again in December. Rising interest rates is what Trump expects will kill the economy and he is right.

Higher interest rates cost all businesses more. Businesses finance expansion with the issuance of debt and small businesses may use debt to help with daily cash flow. Start up businesses may utilize debt to help establish themselves. Consumers use loans to purchase vehicles, homes and luxury items. If the businesses are being squeezed and the consumers have less desire to purchase higher end items, everyone loses, not just the housing sector.

The housing sector has extra constrains between higher material cost along with higher rates consumers have to pay for the mortgage loans. I believe the ultimate problem is the housing sector got fat and greedy from low interest rates for so long. Because interest rates were so low, people wanted larger houses that are larger than what they actually need. Where are they building homes for the average family? It isn't in Orlando, Florida.

Moving forward, Americans are going to have some of the largest tax refunds at the beginning of 2019. Housing may benefit some but with higher interest rates, not as much that will make a difference for the long term. People buy cars when they get big tax refunds regardless of the interest rates so I think Ford is positioning themselves to be the best along with Tesla. I think with Ford and Tesla at their 52 week lows they are a value and a growth buy for 2019 and investors will be happy by August of 2019.

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